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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“The plan involves five documents. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukrainian airspace, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would never accept troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Russia has suggested it could use internal security units instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone might be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will end up with exactly what we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.